Eighty-six per cent of production work cannot be sped up, and one per cent is reachable with a chat window. It is also the largest group in the report at 107 occupations.
Exposure means published research judged an AI could halve the time a task takes, at the same quality. It is not a prediction about any job. How to read this
First-Line Supervisors of Production employ 629,000 people and sit at 55 per cent protected, with 45 per cent in the band needing a tool. The people they supervise are at 90 per cent and above.
The pattern is consistent across the report: within any group, the paperwork rises to the supervisor and the exposure rises with it.
Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers, at 31 per cent protected, are the most exposed occupation in a group where the median is close to 90.
They are the one production occupation whose output is code.
Solid is reachable with a chat window today, pale needs software building first, grey cannot be sped up. Task counts are shown because several of these rest on fewer than twenty.
The shop floor is not where this wave lands. The office attached to it is, and so is the supervisory layer between them.
That is a more useful thing to tell a production director than any headline figure about AI and jobs.
There is no data here on what anybody actually does with AI. A dataset that appears to measure it was removed from this report because its meaning could not be stated. The reasoning is on the limits page.
The exposure ratings cover all 2,225 tasks in these 107 occupations with no gaps, and were made in 2023 against the model capabilities of that year. Read every figure as a floor.
Exposure ratings from Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock, GPTs are GPTs: Labor market impact potential of LLMs, Science 384, 1306–1308, 2024, used under the MIT licence. This page includes information from the O*NET Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA), used under the CC BY 4.0 license. O*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. People Team AI has modified all or some of this information. USDOL/ETA has not approved, endorsed, or tested these modifications. Employment figures from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.