Seventy per cent of transport work cannot be sped up, and the largest occupation in it employs 2.73 million people with nothing reachable today.
Exposure means published research judged an AI could halve the time a task takes, at the same quality. It is not a prediction about any job. How to read this
Nothing reachable with a chat window, 10 per cent needing a tool. The work is moving physical things from one place to another.
Traffic Technicians are the least protected occupation in the group at 29 per cent, because their work is measurement and analysis.
Solid is reachable with a chat window today, pale needs software building first, grey cannot be sped up. Task counts are shown because several of these rest on fewer than twenty.
Autonomous vehicles are not in this data and should not be read into it. This report measures what a language model does to a task, and driving is not a language task.
A transport occupation being protected here says nothing at all about whether it is protected from a different technology.
This is the clearest case in the report of a group that is safe from the thing being measured and not remotely safe from technology in general.
If you are asked whether AI threatens the drivers, the honest answer is that this evidence does not address it, and pretending otherwise in either direction is guessing.
There is no data here on what anybody actually does with AI. A dataset that appears to measure it was removed from this report because its meaning could not be stated. The reasoning is on the limits page.
The exposure ratings cover all 978 tasks in these 52 occupations with no gaps, and were made in 2023 against the model capabilities of that year. Read every figure as a floor.
Exposure ratings from Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin and Rock, GPTs are GPTs: Labor market impact potential of LLMs, Science 384, 1306–1308, 2024, used under the MIT licence. This page includes information from the O*NET Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA), used under the CC BY 4.0 license. O*NET® is a trademark of USDOL/ETA. People Team AI has modified all or some of this information. USDOL/ETA has not approved, endorsed, or tested these modifications. Employment figures from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.